If you try to gauge real-world risk like you would in a game of cards, you’ll likely make bad decisions.Īre you prepared to find out what you don’t know? We’ll see!. Never try to explain the future by looking at your past, it’s a bad indicator.Because Black Swans are always unexpected, they dramatically change the world of those, who are not prepared for them. Here are 3 lessons from The Black Swan to help you get better at expecting what others don’t: They’re too narrow, none of this stuff is actually realistic.” Yet, we use narrow models to predict reality all the time – which is why we’re so bad at it. He always said: “All of those models don’t stand a chance in the real world. One of my friends studied economics in college. This book is about statistics, probability, and how we often falsely use those to estimate the likelihood of real-life events. The Black Swan is the second volume of his 4-volume body of work on uncertainty, called “Incerto.” Antifragile is the fourth.įirst of all, this has nothing to do with the (in my opinion good) movie Black Swan. The way he thinks is marvelous and there’s so much to learn from him. The only point of critique I have to make about Nassim Nicholas Taleb is that I wish he’d publish more books faster. Listen to the audio of this summary with a free reading.fm account:
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